The loan-to-deep black hole does not bottomed out.
The recent fall into the pits, the insurance giant American International Group, AIG (NYSE: AIG).
February 11, AIG to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the documents submitted to Yukui that will guarantee the loss from the previously announced 1.1 billion U.S. dollars, revised to 4.88 billion U.S. dollars. This involves only loss in October 2007 and November.
Just two months ago, AIG CEO Martin Sullivan (Martin Sullivan) also vowed to investors: the company credit portfolio of the possibility of damage to close to zero (minimal). Last year, investors in early December meeting, Sullivan said, "Although not indicate the future, but we have made so far turnover high degree of certainty (certainly)."
Such statements make the situation even more embarrassing AIG.
These documents, AIG external audit bodies PricewaterhouseCoopers said its internal audit of "substantial weaknesses", the credit default swaps (Credit Default Swaps, CDS) product difficult to accurately valuation.
News on that day, AIG shares plummeted 11.7 percent, to 44.74 U.S. dollars, the record since October 19, 1987 Black Monday crash of Wall Street's largest single-day decline.
The next day, AIG issued a statement saying that I believe will not happen any "substantial" losses. AIG will be announced on February 29 report, and loss of market analysis that will also expand.
19 billion U.S. dollars big trouble
In fact, AIG can not continue in the loan-to-detached crisis. Because the information, AIG of the residential mortgage market (residential mortgage market) of all investment companies accounted for 11% of investment assets.
Last year, in November announced the three Bulletin show that by September 30, AIG in the residential mortgage market with about 93.1 billion U.S. dollars, including non-institutional assets of 78 billion U.S. dollars, of which AAA-level assets of 89 percent, 8 percent for the AA level; Alt - A mortgage-backed securities (Alt-A RMBS) amounted to 26 billion U.S. dollars, secondary mortgage-backed securities (Sub-Prime RMBS) amounted to 25.9 billion U.S. dollars, both of the total amount of investment of 28 percent.
爆出Jukui this time may be sold by AIG subsidiary of AIGFP Super Senior CDS products, for CDOs (mortgage bonds) to provide credit protection contracts.
As at September 30, AIG provided for ultra-high CDS book has reached 513 billion U.S. dollars, including loans against the company's 294 billion U.S. dollars, the European residential mortgage loans of 141 billion U.S. dollars, and mortgage bonds in many fields of 78 billion U.S. dollars; The latter include, according to the level of CDOs reached 63 billion U.S. dollars.
Some analysts pointed out that these intermediate risk for mortgage bonds is particularly difficult.
"AIG secondary mortgage bonds on the disclosure shows that companies have the lowest quality risk, and will have to pay large sums of cash compensation." February 14, Morningstar (Morningstar), Lens analyst Matt (Matt Nellans) in that.
As at September 30, in view of the high-level intermediate CDO to provide guarantees of credit default swaps product, AIG prepared a 19 billion U.S. dollars set aside, the transaction agreed to pay an average starting point of 36 percent. This means that in the former AIG to pay reparations, 36 percent of the CDO is likely to be drawn, low-level securities holders are likely to no avail.
Research report said: "This 19 billion U.S. dollars the most trouble, because even if only for the super-AIG senior secondary CDO security, CDO itself is mainly composed of securities from BBB-." Because in case of payment, AIG will give priority to the claims of high-grade assets. Lens within the forecast: "AIG to be capable of 19 billion U.S. dollars set aside the loss, but it will reduce its 19 per cent of net assets, and about 15 months of revenue."
Currently, Moody's, Fitch universal standard three rating agencies to AIG's ratings outlook from Standard & Poor's on the 12th sent a letter to investors, "the managers believe that AIG will face extremely difficult for some time to regain the confidence of investors . "
The insurance industry over-react
AIG incident on the global market to fierce reaction.
February 11, the insurance panel led by the British stock market. London-listed South Africa's largest insurance companies Society Guardian Group of the day down 5.7 percent, the veteran British insurance company Aviva dropped 5.6 percent, the British insurer Royal & Sun Alliance fell 5.4 percent, the British life insurance fell 5.5 percent.
The same day, Japan's stock market also Chouyuncanwu, Japan's largest non-life insurance companies in Asia Millennium Group fell 5.7 percent, Japanese Finance Chanxiangongsi fell 4.5 percent, Sumitomo Mitsui Shanghai sea disaster insurance also fell 6.4 percent. The broader Topix insurance index fell 5.7 percent in the 33 industry groups in the largest decrease.
Two days later, the largest U.S. mortgage insurer MGIC announced Four Seasons reported that quarter loss of 1.47 billion U.S. dollars, and may further expand to 3.5 billion U.S. dollars. Last October, Swiss Re insurance group two credit default swap transaction losses 1.07 billion U.S. dollars.
The relative pessimism of the market, analysts optimistic about the prospects of AIG.
As one of the U.S. financial magazine , quoted UBS analyst Andrew Keligeman insurance (Andrew Kligerman) point of view, said AIG decline is only temporary. "Because of the loan-to-crisis and the damage to investor confidence temporary factors, AIG will be short-term pressure, but its global superiority did not abate, AIG diversity and scale of hard copy."
Perhaps this question should be: AIG on behalf of the entire insurance industry can »
"AIG and its events will be considered as commercial issues, it would be better classified accounting issues." Lens in a telephone interview that "accounting problems and does not reflect the fact too many of the business."
, Lens, the insurance industry will not experience the banking industry, swept by winter, because the insurance companies invested more cautious. "Almost all insurance companies have the loan-to-related assets, but many in the controllable range - to 3-4 percent, and some radical who was AIG in August% -9%." This will enable the majority of insurance companies From the loan-to-day crisis in the escape of Health.
AIG itself and the massive and complicated, so in the loan-to-crisis depression deeper.
"More than 2,000 insurance companies nationwide, many will not participate in CDS transactions, but for AIG CDS, CDOs such transactions set up a corresponding investment institutions, specialized departments engaged in various securities, CDS, which is also increased AIG losses. "
As holders of AIG, the average duration CDS (weighted maturity of the remaining maturity) shorter, at 3.3 years, low risk. Lens within the company that in about three years time to recover, he will share fair value for AIG in 83 U.S. dollars. "2007, AIG annual rate of return on assets of 15%,…… We believe that, AIG managers is to make money for shareholders, rather than the shareholders who take money from." Lens in the final report of the study wrote.
February 15, AIG closed at 46.11 U.S. dollars.